Borkowski Media Trends: Trump, Starmer vs Abbott dominates election headlines & MORE
PLUS: Lib Dems' 'Davey Train' | Pope-a-Dope
Trump: convicted but unbroken?
Donald Trump is a convicted felon. 'Unprecedented' doesn't do this justice. The first former US president to be convicted of a crime will remain a 'free man' while he awaits sentencing for falsifying documents to cover up hush money payments to Stormy Daniels.
Not long ago, the aftermath of such news would've had cataclysmic implications for Trump's reputation and sent his election campaign into a tailspin. But if you cast your eye to the betting markets or opinion polls, there has been a fractional change, and most experts still have Trump as the favourite; OddsChecker has Trump as a 10/11 favourite while Biden sits at 6/4.
Make no mistake, this episode has undoubtedly damaged Trump. The 'how' is unclear, but Trump will have wargamed this outcome and prepared scenarios to come out fighting. America is such a polarised nation that Trump can spin the trial result as part of a coup to take him down. And like a wounded animal, he is most dangerous when his back is to a wall. Let's not glorify that picture; Trump has previously incited chaos, namely the Capitol attack that caused the deaths of nine people.
As things stand, most commentators are paralysed by the unknown. According to pollsters FiveThirtyEight, Trump supporters have clarified that a conviction will have little bearing on their vote. Trump voters are so dialled into his campaign that any defectors will not switch their support to Biden (see below).
The key to this chapter will likely come down to the symbolism and which side can take advantage of the situation. Can the Republicans package Trump as some sort of pariah, or will the Democrats be able to convert this negative news into votes? The latter has historically struggled, e.g., Clinton's passive approach during the 2016 TV debates in the hopes that Trump would self-destruct, but instead allowed him to dominate with catchy, unfiltered soundbites. Trump can both attack and counter-attack and with such a devoted fanbase, it's unclear how his opponents will capitalise on this outcome. The coming weeks will likely give us a clearer picture, but it's no easy task.
Whipped into shape: Starmer vs Abbott dominates this week on the campaign trail
With the launch of the election campaigns last week, the Labour Party has been assiduously working to convey its messaging to the British public, promising to calmly steer Britain through the sea of Tory turbulence.
Starmer’s reputation has largely been one of consistent stability, uncontroversial and sometimes uninspiring. In short, he has worked hard to cultivate an image of being everything the Tory premiership was not. His usual response to events is one of measured calm, following the approach made famous by Aaron Burr in Hamilton ‘talk less, smile more.
Unfortunately for Starmer, even the most well-captained vessels will inevitably hit bad weather, and the Diane Abbott controversy may be just that. Starmer’s talk less approach has opened a vacuum for other individuals to talk more, and talk they have.
What began as a discussion over whether Diane Abbott would be reinstated as a member of the Labour Party following her temporary suspension for antisemitic comments included in a letter to The Observer 23 April 2023 has spiralled into an own goal for Labour and team Starmer. The media narrative has been dominated by articles questioning whether Labour’s treatment of Abbott is due to her race, with the Telegraph headline ‘Is Labour humiliating Diane Abbott because she is black’ and the Guardian publishing a letter titled ‘Labour’s treatment of Diane Abbott shows the party at its most cruel’. Some of this is arguably the result of the Times leak (article now removed) revealing Labour’s alleged plan to reinstate Abbott in exchange for her retirement, however Labour’s lack of clear statement has let Abbott and her supporters construct their own narrative.
In an issue as emotive as this, staying silent and measured while waiting for the NEC to make its judgement has proven to be an error of judgment. Silence has only emboldened Starmer’s critics, and it is becoming increasingly challenging for his team to gain any control over the narrative.
An unfortunate example of what can happen when a crisis is mismanaged or underestimated. Silence isn’t always golden.
All aboard the Davey Train: Lib Dems finally reach the fun phase of their banter era
Despite numerous by-election successes and a strong chance of capitalising on the travails of the outgoing government, the Liberal Democrats were always going to find share of voice a challenge ahead of the General Election.
Defending a paltry 15 seats, long usurped as second opposition in PMQs by the SNP, and with policy positions (and even controversies) scarce, media exposure looked set to be limited to regulated broadcasters’ noble put ultimately perfunctory attempts to offer a wider range of opinions than the two dominant parties.
Enter Sir Ed Davey; a man whose (some would say reluctant) leadership of the party relies on his status as arguably the last remaining Lib Dem’ Grandee’.
In an era where serious-minded and earnest public servants with cabinet credentials are so endangered that we’re all fanboying David Cameron, would Davey attempt to steal the middle ground by positioning himself as a bulwark of trust, competence and experience?
Fat chance: the Lib Dems may have been in their ‘banter era’ ever since Jo Swinson used the expression “Coalicious” in a 2010 Facebook post, but this general election campaign has seen Davey take the bold decision to finally usher in the fun phase.
Davey launched the campaign by stacking it off a paddleboard, popped up on a waterslide the next day, and then donned a baker’s hat in a school visit leading to a gleeful ‘Bread Davey’ Mail Online article among a cavalcade of media coverage, memes and social media posts.
Quick to support their intrepid leader’s style, the Lib Dem’s joined in on Labour’s meme-centric TikTok attack tactics by using a Peep Show voiceover to slag off Rishi’s football skills:
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If there’s a serious strategy to be gleaned from the wall-to-wall shenanigans it’s that the Lib Dems are, in their own much more fun way, aping Labour’s approach of staying visible while giving their opposition as little substantial material as possible with which to attack them, and hoping that the government’s unpopular track record will then win them seats as a viable if amorphous alternative.
Pope-a-Dope
Pope Francis was shamed into apologising this week after being quoted using a homophobic slur in a private conversation, belying his positioning as a liberal reformer.
Although a rather shameful story on the surface, the internet has a way of turning just about anything into a meme these days, and not even the Holy Father himself is absolved of this staple of internet culture. Pope Francis is likely known to many of the younger generation solely via the wealth of Pope memes in constant circulation, particularly those in which he is positioned as an unwitting fashion icon.
In a bizarre union of one of the oldest institutions in the Western world and modern-day clickbait, it wouldn’t be amiss to say that Pope Francis has won the heart of the internet over the years as a beloved meme.
So, what impact will his reported offensive comment have on his reputation? The truth is, probably very little. Having made relative tolerance of LGBTQ+ Catholics a hallmark of his papacy – Francis shocked the world with his (relative) support of gay civil unions- use of a slur was out of step with his liberal image in a way that might have been damaging.
However, notwithstanding the sad fact that his alleged comment might actually chime with a lot of his core audience, his status as a meme - aided by the fact that a lot of commentators, including a lot of gay commentators, found the word itself and its translation funny- may have softened the blow.
Why then should the Pope’s comments not be regarded as anything more than meme-fodder? No one is under any illusion about the Catholic Church’s views on LGBTQ+ people, and only this Pope, now immortalised as a meme that will outlast and overshadow any real consequence, could make a homophobic slur funny.